Northern Michigan may see a mild, drier winter this year because of a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.
The natural climate pattern happens about every four to seven years, when sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific remain above average for several months in a row. The extra warmth fuels changes in atmospheric patterns, affecting Michiganders thousands of miles away.
While this year’s El Niño is on track to break records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, most of the Midwest may be spared from some of the more dramatic impacts forecasted elsewhere in the country, such as a busy hurricane season for Hawaii and the Pacific Islands or a wetter Northeast.
How will El Nino impact the rest of the country? See a region-by-region breakdown from our editorial partner, Grist.
Impacts are so variable because changes to how air moves around the globe, and its impacts on weather, depend a lot on timing, location and local seasons.
Here’s what to know about El Niño’s impacts in northern Michigan.
What effects are we already seeing?
El Niño shifts the location of the jet streams across the US — the fast-moving bands of air located at the same height that airplanes fly — keeping the cold Arctic air that typically comes into the Great Lakes region this time of year farther north.
“We don't have a nice dipping trough of a jet stream to bring those cold air masses down over us,” said Daria Kluver, a professor at Central Michigan University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.
That’s led to a warmer and drier fall than average for much of northern Michigan, according to Sean Christensen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gaylord.
October temperatures in the region were at least 4 degrees higher than average, according to the National Weather Service. Gaylord temperatures last month were 6.6 degrees above average, while Traverse City was 4.7 degrees warmer.
How will El Niño impact winter in northern Michigan?
El Niño peaks in the US before the end of the year, but effects linger for several months. In northern Michigan, above-average temperatures will continue throughout the winter, experts said.
During past strong El Niño events, winter temperatures in northern Michigan ranged from 2 to 6 degrees above average, according to the weather service office in Gaylord.
The region will also likely see less snow than average, including lake effect areas. Warmer temperatures may limit lake effect impacts.
“Whether you find that good or bad maybe depends on what you do for winter recreation,” she said.
What other factors will shape the region’s winter besides El Niño?
Kluver said El Niño doesn’t rule out chances of precipitation in the form of rain or ice, even if there’s less snow.
But that will depend on other dynamics like how much sea ice is in the Arctic or atmospheric patterns in the Atlantic Ocean, she said.
“El Niño is not the only player here, but it is a really strong signal,” Kluver said.
How does El Niño impact ice on the Great Lakes?
A warmer-than-average winter could reduce the amount of ice cover on the Great Lakes, providing additional moisture and moderating temperatures throughout the region.
In three of the four recent very strong El Niño events, ice cover on each of the lakes was lower. And the timing of peak ice occurred earlier in the year, according to the US Geological Survey.
El Niño can fuel lower ice levels, but comes as the Great Lakes are already seeing less ice because of climate change, from warmer winters and fewer blasts of cold Arctic air. The changes in ice cover could impact Great Lakes economies, recreation, and the ecosystems that depend on it — such as less ice fishing, an extended shipping season across the lakes and more shoreline erosion.
What makes this a “super” El Niño?
“Super” is not a technical term. But it does speak to the likelihood of a “historic event” that would surpass the current El Niño records going back to 1950, according to the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center.
The center forecasts an 83% chance of a “strong to very strong” El Niño through the start of 2027.
Ocean temperatures over the last three months tracked by NOAA have averaged 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual. At this same time during the last strong El Niño event in 2015, temperatures were 1.8 degrees Celsius.
That strength has already contributed to weather extremes in other parts of the country. In the Southwest, above-average rainfall has exacerbated flooding. Across the world, drought in the Amazon is fueling massive fires.
How is climate change affecting El Niño?
The impacts of climate change on El Niño are a growing body of research, and some experts say it can be hard to tease out the two.
But the above-average ocean temperatures from El Niño are happening against the backdrop of increasingly warm waters as they absorb the excess heat from burning fossil fuels, said Richard Rood, professor emeritus at the University of Michigan who studies climate change.
There’s been enough warming that NOAA started using a new El Niño measurement this year that factors in some of that background warming, called the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. It’s an index that uses three-month averages of ocean temperatures and is already used by weather services in Australia and New Zealand.
Increased ocean temperatures — even temporarily from El Niño — drive changes in the atmosphere that might not be seen for several years, Rood said.
“The patterns are changing as the planet is warming,” Rood said. “We are in this pattern of non-stationarity.”
This reporting is made possible by the Northern Michigan Journalism Collaborative, led by Bridge Michigan and Interlochen Public Radio, and funded by Press Forward Northern Michigan.
This story is made possible through a partnership between Interlochen Public Radio and Grist, a nonprofit environmental media organization.
