AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
NATO leaders will be gathering in the Turkish capital Ankara for the organization's annual gathering later this week. The summit's taking place against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and negotiations to end the Iran conflict. President Trump is expected to be there, but in a social media post on Thursday, he said it's ridiculous for the U.S. to maintain its current level of support for NATO when, quote, "the relationship is not reciprocal."
Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He previously held various positions in the State Department during the Obama administration. Welcome to the program.
MAX BERGMANN: Great to be with you.
RASCOE: What do you think the leaders at the summit will focus on?
BERGMANN: Well, I think their major focus is going to be on whether President Trump is committed to the alliance. You know, the NATO alliance is structured around the United States despite President Trump's complaints about that. That is how the United States has historically wanted it. We've wanted Europeans to be reliant on us and dependent on us. And so they want to see whether the United States is committed to Article 5, which basically means if there's an attack on one, there's an attack on all, and the United States would go to defend Europe. And it's been a little vague in the past. And so that's the thing that Europeans are constantly looking for if - whether we're still committed.
RASCOE: And that's the question because it seems like with these summits, over and over again, the question is, like, whoa, well, is the U.S. still with us? I mean, Trump has been criticizing NATO for a long time. He's angry at European allies for not enthusiastically joining or even supporting his war on Iran. What are the impact of these recent comments?
BERGMANN: Trump, I think, has a clear point of why is Europe so wealthy and rich, and there's 450 million Europeans in the European Union, 500 million in NATO. And why are they dependent on the United States? And I think what is beginning is a transition where Europe takes more responsibility for its own security and, in fact, maybe is in charge with taking over responsibility for its own security. But the reason why Europeans haven't taken charge is not because they're deadbeats. I mean, they needed to spend more on defense. That has been clear. But we have wanted to play the role of quarterback in Europe, and when the Europeans have moved in the past, through the European Union, for instance, to develop their own defense capabilities, we have told them not to. So now we are sort of switching gears and saying, why aren't you taking charge? And the Europeans are like, well, how do you want us to do that? And so we are stuck, the United States, of wanting Europe to do more, to be independent, to move on.
On the other hand, we want to remain in control. And so there's this tension and contradiction. And so we are at the sort of changing of the guard or beginning of a new era, and it's sort of quite confusing about what the future looks like for the alliance.
RASCOE: But can a NATO exist where Europe is taking the lead? Would that mean a weak NATO, or would that mean a NATO that is divided?
BERGMANN: So I think in the best-case scenario, Europe builds what has been called sort of a European pillar of NATO, that Europe begins to act more and more like Europe, not as just a bunch of individual countries that sort of dock into the United States and look to the United States for leadership. And I think that would actually make Europe much more important to us and make NATO much more valuable.
Now, there are questions about whether that means there'll be more discord in the alliance and between Europe and the United States, whether Europe would stand up to us. But where we are right now, I think, doesn't help anyone, where Europe is sort of too weak to defend itself, too disorganized to defend itself, reliant on us, and yet we are not that committed. And so that leaves the alliance in sort of the worst-case scenario, where Europeans are dependent on us, but not sure if we would actually show up if there were, you know, 200,000 Russians on the border of the EU border of the Baltic states. And so I think that creates a lot of concern within Europe. And so we're beginning to see a real shift happen.
RASCOE: Well, that's, you know, the concern about Russian aggressions. Just last week, Poland's prime minister said his country is preparing for various scenarios after reports citing U.S. intelligence that Moscow was planning a provocation in Poland aimed at testing NATO's resolve. Like, how serious is this for Europe?
BERGMANN: I think it's deadly serious. The war in Ukraine, the fact that that's still going on, means that Russia's focused on Ukraine. But if the war were to stop, if there were to be a ceasefire or Russia just sort of gives up on its war, it might turn its sights to Europe. And if the U.S. is not committed, particularly in 2028, 2029, or in the near future, Russia has the defense capability to cause Europe real problems, especially if it's not organized to defend itself. And so there are real questions about the future of European security, and so Europeans are really nervous.
RASCOE: That's Max Bergmann from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
BERGMANN: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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