DON GONYEA, HOST:
Now, for more on the conflict in Iran, we are joined by Kelly Grieco. She's a senior fellow and military analyst at the Stimson Center. Kelly, thank you for being here.
KELLY GRIECO: Thank you, and good morning.
GONYEA: So U.S. Central Command announced yesterday the arrival of 3,500 more sailors and Marines to the region. Yet Trump says ceasefire talks are going well. What do you make of this moment?
GRIECO: Yes. I think it's clear at this point that the president is looking for an off-ramp, I think, if the unstated, probably top objective really of the administration at this point is to try to bring this war to a conclusion and have the strait reopened. But the problem is, the Iranians really have the upper hand because they're the ones closing the strait, and there are no good military options. And I think the president, with the arrival of these new forces and others on their way, is trying to create some of that leverage to put additional pressure on the Iranians to bring the war to an end.
GONYEA: Are the new forces a concession of sorts, too, that an air campaign isn't enough?
GRIECO: Yeah, that's a good point. And I think you're right about that. That's clearly been the case. You know, the air campaign has done a lot of certainly damage in destroying many of Iran's, you know, military capabilities, but it's clear that they still have the capacity to do harm and to inflict pain. And we've seen that, you know, even over the last couple of days on the strikes on bases and infrastructure across the Gulf. And it's not a surprise that air power alone is not able to win wars for you. That's traditionally been the case. And some of the next objectives that he might try to achieve - you know, reopening the strait - there's no way around it. It would require some kind of ground presence if you do that militarily.
GONYEA: So if we do see American boots on the ground in Iran, what type of military operation might we expect?
GRIECO: Yeah. I think there are really, you know, three options here on the table, it seems. One is some idea to try to go in and seize the nuclear material, this enriched uranium. But I would just say that this is really dangerous. You know, you'd have to go hundreds of miles into Iran. You'd have to dig your way in, and digging a hole takes time. And, you know, you'd be, you know, well into Iran trying to do this with, you know, special forces.
I think the second possibility is Kharg Island, which is in the Persian Gulf. It is to the north of the strait, where much of Iran's oil exports pass through. To try to seize the island and cut off that source of revenue. And I think the third would be there is a series of smaller islands near the Strait of Hormuz that they might try to seize to prevent basically those small islands being used as launch points for anti-ship missiles.
GONYEA: And what's your best sense of what Iran's objectives are here?
GRIECO: Yes, great question. You know, I think, at this point, Iran's, you know, objective, in some sense, is simple. It's to survive this war, if the revolution survives. But I think the secondary objective is both to increase the costs, you know, the pressure on Washington to bring this war to an end, and to make sure that it's costly enough that the United States and Israel don't contemplate doing this six months, a year or two years from now.
GONYEA: And the White House says that the targeting of Iran's missile capabilities is now a top priority. Do we have a good sense of whether or not they're actually achieving the goal there?
GRIECO: Yeah. I don't think we really do. You know, the administration publicly has largely relied on metrics of what the volume is in terms of what the Iranians are sending up in the air every day. So saying, you know, it's down 90% from the first day of the war. That's - one possibility is, in fact, that the United States and Israel have been quite effective at destroying launchers, destroying stockpiles of these missiles. The problem is, it's not the only potential explanation for that. I think the other one that we need to consider seriously is that, yes, they've lost some capacity, but they've changed their strategy. They recognize that it's not the sheer volume that they need to put up every day for their strategy of increasing costs. It's that they have to put enough up in the air that the strait remains closed, that it disrupts the way of life across the Gulf States, that if it does that, the pressure continues, and it's able to sustain it in the long term.
GONYEA: And as we are now in the second month of this war, what are you watching out for in the coming days?
GRIECO: Well, you know, I think you asked about it earlier, and I'll just say, I think this is the most dangerous moment in the war so far as the administration is sending forces to the region and looks like it's seriously contemplating some kind of ground action. I'm very concerned that it's going to do that. And I'll just say that, you know, if it takes one of these islands - these small islands in the strait or towards Kharg, all of those forces are going to be under the range of drones and missiles and artillery. It would be a very dangerous and costly operation.
GONYEA: That is Kelly Grieco from the Stimson Center. Kelly, thank you so much for joining us today.
GRIECO: Thank you.
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