AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Iran has vowed to avenge the death of its supreme leader. So what's next for U.S.-Iranian relations? We're joined now by Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He was also a senior adviser on Iran at the State Department during the Obama administration. Welcome to the program.
RAY TAKEYH: Thank you very much for having me.
RASCOE: So Trump has stated that one of his goals is regime change. We just heard the Congressmen cast some doubt on that. But do you think that is a possible outcome given these strikes?
TAKEYH: I don't believe you can bomb the Islamic republic out of extinction. It is sort of a multilayered elite. It is actually a system of government with cadres throughout the nation. I think you can engage in decapitation exercises, as was done in this particular strike and in the previous one. But the regime is resilient enough to be able to replace depleted cadres. So I don't think it can collapse from the air if that, in fact, is the objective of the United States and Israel.
RASCOE: Well, what are you watching out for in terms of succession? I mean, if the regime remains, who will be in control?
TAKEYH: I suspect that the regime already has succession in place. They have appointed an interim committee of the president, the head of judiciary and a member of the Assembly of Experts. That is a constitutional requirement, Article 111. I suspect they already know who the successor is, but formally, the succession has to be sanctioned by Assembly of Experts, which is about 89 people. And at this point, I don't believe that body can convene given the necessary - the hazards to such a gathering would be. But I think the regime already knows how it's going to manage the succession and have already decided who or the persons that will take the place of Ali Khamenei.
RASCOE: Well, what about the idea the Israeli military has claimed that its strikes have killed 40 top Iranian military officials? Like, is there a concern that maybe other leaders have been killed, other than the supreme leader, that could affect those - affect succession?
TAKEYH: Well, I suspect the succession had been decided on certainly after the June war. So the system is in place. Now, the individuals that they have recommended for this particular interim committee, Ayatollah Azari (ph) and Ayatollah Ghaffari (ph), and there still seem to be a lot. Now, it's possible that they will be assassinated as well. Then the regime will come up with a different category of people. But I don't think the regime, in that sense, is in danger of collapsing just by the fact that there's nobody left. This is not a personalized dictatorship. This is an ideological system with a multilayered cadre.
RASCOE: What about this idea that Trump has said, have the people, you know, rise up, telling the people of Iran, this is your chance, this is your moment - and what about that? And also saying that, you know, the police forces could, you know, get on the side of the people? Is that just rhetoric?
TAKEYH: Well, in any kind of a regime-change scenario, you would need the security services, the police and others to defect and essentially break the ability of the regime to control the population. So I suspect that's what the president is trying to do by appeal to security organs (ph) to say that you don't have to do this. Whether I'll succeed or not, I tend to be skeptical.
As far as the Iranian people rising up, they did rise up. There was an uprising recently, and the regime managed to restore order by killing - some of the credible reports I have seen is 7,000 people. So the regime has instilled fear in the public once more. It has proven its point that despite the fact that it may lose wars abroad, it is still capable of viciously enforcing order at home. I don't believe that will change. At this point, the Iranian public seems to be discombobulated and just has no idea what is happening. So there's mass confusion, and it's difficult to organize protests in the streets when bombs are falling. So those two messages seems to be in contradiction to one another.
RASCOE: You've written that Trump relishes displays of power as long as there is no cost. How strong or weak is Iran in this moment?
TAKEYH: Well, the problem is going to be if one of the Iranian missiles managed to hit an American base and that essentially causes fatality of some 30, 40 American servicemen. Then I suspect any president would be obligated to respond. So we could be in the edge of an escalatory cycle that has the chance of getting out of hand. That is the danger of these projectiles that Iran is dispatching throughout the region.
RASCOE: Where do you think this is headed?
TAKEYH: Honestly, I'm not sure because the president has not explicated what his objectives are, what he is seeking to achieve. He merely has said that he will continue these operations without necessarily providing off-ramps. Previously, he used force in order to get an arms-control agreement. That doesn't seem to be the objective. Now, apparently, it is the use of force to facilitate change of regime, and I don't think that's likely to happen. So I'm not sure how this ends.
RASCOE: That's Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for the Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you so much for being with us.
TAKEYH: Thank you very much for having me.
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