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Groundhogs vs. the National Weather Service

Marmota momax — the common groundhog. Cute, but not a skilled weather forecaster. (Adobe Stock image)
Marmota momax — the common groundhog. Cute, but not a skilled weather forecaster. (Adobe Stock image)

America's groundhogs (and other creatures) have weighed in. But how accurate are they? And what do, you know, the actual meteorologists at the National Weather Service say about our long-term forecast?

Yesterday, the world's most famous weather prognosticating groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow, meaning he's hunkering down for six more weeks of winter.

But what about the rest of the meteorologically inclined groundhogs scattered across America? IPR's Austin Rowlader found that of the 74 groundhogs that made a prediction, 39 (52.7%) of them say we're in for six more weeks of winter.

What does that mean? Not much. According to the National Weather Service, Punxsutawney Phil is right only 35% of the time. Meaning he's tied for the worst track record of any weather prediction groundhog in the US.

Courtest of the National Weather Service
Courtest of the National Weather Service

Who's the other equally unreliable groundhog? Woody the Woodchuck — Michigan's official weather groundhog. Both are telling us we're in for six more weeks of winter.

But that doesn't mean all groundhogs are inept weather prognosticators. Some get pretty lucky. According to the National Weather Service, a groundhog in New York named Staten Island Chuck has an 85% accuracy rating. He also saw his shadow this Groundhog Day.

What does the National Weather Service think about the coming of spring?

Well, simplistic pronunciations of distant weather forecasts are not really their thing. But they do publish seasonal outlook maps. If you'd like to dive deeper into their long-term forecast data, you can visit their official outlooks page.

But if you'd rather just see what the groundhogs think (and read more of their hilarious names) click here.

Austin is a freelance reporter and producer based in Bellaire.
Ed Ronco is IPR's news director and the local host of "Morning Edition."