MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
There is no such thing as an associate membership in the European Union. This fact did not stop European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen from floating the idea to Canada. And Canada, of course, is not in Europe, but it is locked in a hostile trade war with the U.S., which has also placed tariffs on EU imports. President Trump is threatening more, what he calls, very serious tariffs on the EU if he determines this whole associate membership idea is a, quote, "hostile act." Well, here's one line from Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney as he addressed the European Parliament today.
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PRIME MINISTER MARK CARNEY: I'm not proposing a third bloc in order to become a great power rival only with better manners.
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KELLY: Carney did welcome some sort of closer partnership between Canada and Europe. Here to help break that down is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group. That's a political consulting firm. Hi, Ian.
IAN BREMMER: Hi. How are you?
KELLY: Hi. I'm well. Thank you. What's your read on how much of this EU invitation is substance and how much is meant to deliver a message to Donald Trump?
BREMMER: Oh, no. It's not meant to deliver a message. It is meant to increase resilience. It's meant to increase predictability. I think there are a lot of countries out there that really worry that rule of law, which the United States used to be the principal country in the world that promoted, is now no longer interested in doing so, and they really need it to persist. And that's why you're seeing the Canadians reach out, not just to the EU but certainly historically with...
KELLY: You don't see...
BREMMER: ...The EU, and I think the prime...
KELLY: ...Any coded message being delivered here? There's a whole lot of ways to communicate resilience and deeper ties without an invitation to join a trade alliance to which the U.S. is not privy.
BREMMER: You know, the interest - associate membership was not the Canadian prime minister's idea. What he wants is an alliance that is deeper than what he presently has. He wants a bloc that other countries can join that would help to allow the Canadians to use the strategic pillars, as they call them, to engage more with other countries that they can have predictable relations with. So, for example, their critical minerals and raw materials, the energy security that they have in spades, more defense (inaudible), technology and research and capital markets - all of those things. They have a very strong relationship with the United States but one that has suddenly become much more vulnerable to unilateral, short-term decisions by President Trump, specifically in the second term.
So I don't think it's coded at all. I think they're - across the political spectrum in Canada, President Trump has unified this country in feeling very vulnerable that their principal ally is no longer a country that they can rely on as much. And that is something that they are trying to address. There's no coding at all.
KELLY: What would the EU get out of an associate membership or whatever we want to call this arrangement?
BREMMER: Well, the EU would have another country out there that actually has a lot of resources, a lot of human capital, a lot of political stability that is interested in having more stable, long-term relations with them. And, you know, its - this rupture that Mark Carney talks about - it's not just because the United States has gone unilateral and doesn't want to be a global leader the way it has historically. It's also because the world's second-largest economy is getting much more powerful but isn't becoming free market-oriented. It isn't becoming democratic. It doesn't support rule of law. It's still a state capitalist authoritarian regime. I'm talking, of course, about China. The Europeans are very vulnerable to a China that is hollowing out Europe's industry, so that they want more predictable relations with countries where that doesn't happen.
KELLY: You just raised Mark Carney's now famous quote about a rupture in the world order. That's, of course, from his speech - Davos, Switzerland, earlier this year. Is - I mean, is it a stretch to describe this week, the development of maybe some kind of invitation to move closer, cuddle in closer to the EU - is this the beginnings of what a new world order might look like?
BREMMER: Well, Mary Louise, there are three ways to respond to a rupture, to what I call a GZERO world, where there's no global leadership. One is you can build new institutions that react to the new balance of power. A second is you can reform your existing institutions so that they are more capable of responding to the new demands and challenges. The third is that you can go to war. And over the last couple of years, we've done all three. I think this is an effort and a hope by the Canadian prime minister that there can be a little bit more energy and resource into the first two, as opposed to the latter.
KELLY: And to quote him, again, directly, "not proposing a third bloc in order to become a great power rival with better manners." It sounded like awkward laughter there, was the reception that he got in Europe. Where would a deeper alliance leave the United States?
BREMMER: A deeper Canada-EU alliance would leave the United States in perfectly good stead, as long as the United States wants to be committed to rule of law and democracy and predictability from one administration to the next. But I do believe - and you can talk to Canadians on the right and the left - that there is permanent damage that has been done to this closest of relationships over the course of the last two years of the second Trump administration.
KELLY: Permanent?
BREMMER: And while that relationship will...
KELLY: You don't think there's any reversing it?
BREMMER: Permanent. Oh, it will be reversed. It will be repaired, and I think that any Democrat or Republican that comes in in 2029 will work to do that, but it will not come back to what it was. The trust - sometimes you're in a relationship with a spouse, a family member, whoever, and they say something that you cannot unhear.
KELLY: Yeah (laughter).
BREMMER: And that is what has happened to the Canadians. It will never be what it was, unfortunately.
KELLY: We just have a few seconds left, but what are you watching for next - Australia, New Zealand invited to join the European Union?
BREMMER: Well, I mean, the U.K. certainly, post-Brexit, is not going to be invited the same way the Canadians were, but they - Burnham, the new prime minister, would love to find a way to reintegrate. Let's see what he has to say over the next few days.
KELLY: Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Thank you, Ian.
BREMMER: Mary Louise, always a pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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