SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
One hundred ninety-two days - that is how long it has been since the U.S. and Israel began a war against Iran. Iran immediately blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and launched counterattacks across the Persian Gulf, targeting U.S. forces on airbases in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain. More than six months later, the future of those bases and U.S. troops in the region remains uncertain. We are joined now by NPR's international correspondent in the Gulf, Aya Batrawy, and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman.
Aya, let's start with you and of what you're hearing in the Gulf from Arab allies that have long hosted thousands of U.S. troops, believing it would offer them protection from adversaries like Iran. So I'm wondering - does that model still hold?
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Yeah, Scott. So this is one of the most sensitive questions right now for the U.S. and Gulf allies. In Washington, that's because any permanent troop reduction could be seen as a sign of weakness to Iran. And here in the Gulf, there are two realities holding firm. The first is that the presence of U.S. troops who launched attacks on Iran from these bases is partly why these Arab countries were attacked by thousands of Iranian missiles and drones during the war. The other reality is that there's no replacement to U.S. defense in the Gulf. Bilal Saab, a former advisor at the Pentagon, who's now with Trends Research and Advisory, explains it like this.
BILAL SAAB: It's overstated to say that they are fundamentally rethinking everything. No, no - they understand that there's no alternative to the Americans. And the Americans is not just a weapon. The Americans is everything that comes with it.
BATRAWY: He says that includes training and political influence - intangible things that they can't, for example, get from China. So he says despite its flaws, the U.S. is still the best defense partner Gulf Arab states have.
DETROW: Are these countries questioning, though, whether to host sprawling U.S. bases going forward?
BATRAWY: So in an apparent reference to the U.S. security umbrella and what it actually offers, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman, Majed al-Ansari, told an audience in the UAE just yesterday that this war revealed the security architecture of the Gulf was based on a, quote, "fragile deterrence."
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MAJED AL-ANSARI: It took one drone to disrupt - not disrupt - actually reduce the capability of a country like Qatar to produce LNG by 17% - one drone. That's probably, in all its supply chain, did not cost any more than $100,000.
BATRAWY: So he's saying, Scott, that cheap drones cost the world it's liquefied natural gas supply from Qatar, which had to halt production when its main complex was hit in the war. In other words, he's saying 10,000 U.S. troops that were stationed in Qatar couldn't deter that attack.
DETROW: Tom, I'm going to bring you into this conversation now to talk more about those U.S. troops, because right now some of the troops and sailors that were in the region have been pulled out. I'm curious what you're hearing from U.S. officials about the future of U.S. troops in the Gulf.
TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: Well, Scott, officials are still assessing the way ahead. Back in April, Pentagon comptroller Jay Hurst told Congress it depends on how we decide to rebuild to those facilities or if we do. With Bahrain, at a recent town hall with sailors, the chief of naval operations, Admiral Daryl Caudle, was asked when sailors would return to this 5th Fleet hub of operations so they can - they and their families could collect their personal belongings. He gave a blunt answer.
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DARYL CAUDLE: We're not getting back in there anytime soon. I just want to be completely honest with that.
BOWMAN: And one official I spoke with said it's possible Bahrain would become what's called an expeditionary base, meaning really bare bones with no dependents.
DETROW: Transparency has been a real challenge with this administration, with this Pentagon. Tom, has the Pentagon been forthcoming about how much damage has been inflicted on these bases or how many thousands of troops have been pulled away from them?
BOWMAN: Well, at that hearing back in April, Pentagon Comptroller Hurst told Congress he does not have a final cost estimate for the damage to bases and facilities. Of course, since then, there have been many more Iranian attacks on U.S. locations throughout the region. Analysts say you're looking at damages in the billions of dollars and maybe 16 or so U.S. locations that have been hit. Pentagon really hasn't been forthcoming with much information at all about the war or the number of troops pulled out.
As far as Bahrain, we know there were some 8,000 military personnel there before the war, and now it's less than a hundred. Some 1,300 family members were evacuated, as well.
DETROW: And Aya, the question of transparency in this administration also underpins that bigger question of what is the U.S. strategy in the Gulf today? What are you hearing about that?
BATRAWY: So, Scott, Gulf Arab states say U.S. policy has been unpredictable and unreliable for more than a decade now, stretching back to the Obama administration in that first deal with Iran. And they believe it heavily favors Israel and Israel's political whims. So some Gulf countries are racing to build their own domestic defense industries and broaden their security ties. You can see this with the Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel that established ties several years ago. The UAE then used Israel's Iron Dome as part of its defense in this war.
And then, this summer, there was the Mecca Agreement between Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia for joint defense. But there's no indication still, Scott, that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait or Qatar are telling the U.S. to lower their troop numbers indefinitely. They seem to be waiting for the U.S. to actually have a clear policy of what it wants to do. And in the meantime, they're rushing to defend their oil and gas facilities and protect their economies from this expanding war. Just today, an airbase and oil facilities in southwestern Saudi Arabia were struck by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis, and dozens of people were wounded there.
DETROW: And, Tom, in the meantime, there's ongoing strikes between Iran and the U.S.
BOWMAN: Yeah. That's right. The U.S. hit three Iranian crude oil tankers over the weekend after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward U.S. warships. And it looks like the U.S. is hitting more locations on Iran's Kharg Island. Scott, NPR also confirmed a Washington Post story that the U.S. is investigating the likelihood that a bomb from a U.S. Navy jet was responsible for an explosion at a wedding party last week in southern Iran that led to the deaths of at least two women and two children and left scores wounded.
DETROW: That is NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman, as well as international correspondent in the Gulf, Aya Batrawy. Thanks to both of you.
BOWMAN: You're welcome.
BATRAWY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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