AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The oceans are warming. Water temperatures globally have hit a record high. It's a sign of the growing super El Nino climate pattern, which affects weather around the world, and this year's may be a doozy. NPR's Lauren Sommer covers climate and joins us now. Hi, Lauren.
LAUREN SOMMER, BYLINE: Hey, Ayesha.
RASCOE: How exactly does El Nino work? I feel like I hear about it all the time.
SOMMER: Right.
RASCOE: And how does it affect the planet?
SOMMER: Yeah. So it's actually a natural cycle that the Earth goes through, and it happens when there's just this huge amount of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. That releases a lot of heat to the atmosphere, and it has these really far-reaching ripple effects. It can change weather patterns dramatically, and that could mean, you know, lack of rain and drought in some places, and then extreme rain and flooding in other places.
RASCOE: And what makes this particular El Nino a super El Nino?
SOMMER: Yeah. It's like super, super duper El Nino. Some people are calling it like a Godzilla El Nino. But really, officially, federal forecasters say it's a very strong El Nino. And I talked to Julia Cole about why that is. She's a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.
JULIA COLE: Right now, we're looking at an El Nino developing across the tropical Pacific that is stronger than any other El Nino has been at this time of year. These temperatures are still rising, and so we expect that this El Nino that's developing now is going to be historic, probably a record-breaking El Nino.
SOMMER: And El Ninos tend to peak at the end of the year, so this one is still strengthening, and the impacts could last for months after that.
RASCOE: What could those impacts look like here in the U.S.?
SOMMER: First thing is heat. It'll raise temperatures globally. I mean, the hottest years on record are usually El Nino years. And remember, this El Nino is on top of climate change. The planet is already about 2 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter from burning fossil fuels, so this year or next year, most likely, could become the hottest year on record. And then the other major risk is related to rainfall. In the U.S., El Nino years usually bring more intense rain to the southern half of the U.S., and that could mean destructive flooding. The northern half of the U.S. gets drier, too, so that's a big deal in the Intermountain West, which had low snowfall last year and is in a drought right now.
RASCOE: We know that climate change is already raising the risk of natural disasters generally. Is climate change also increasing the chances of creating super El Ninos like this?
SOMMER: Yeah. That's actually been a tough question to figure out scientifically because this is a very complex climate pattern. But a new study just came out about that. Cole and her colleagues put together a record of past El Ninos by looking at coral skeletons in the Galapagos. You know, corals - they grow a tiny bit each year, and their skeletons kind of tell this story about what conditions were like when they were growing. Cole looked at those records of El Ninos from the past thousand years and compared them to today.
COLE: What we found is that the modern El Ninos are significantly stronger than the ones that we saw in the pre-Industrial Era. So that leads us to believe that strong El Nino events that we're seeing now are a consequence of being in a warmer world.
SOMMER: She says today's El Ninos are about 36% stronger, and that can lead to some much higher risks.
RASCOE: We obviously saw that horrible, deadly flooding in the Himalayas this past week. Is that related to El Nino?
SOMMER: That flood was likely caused by a glacier collapsing, and, you know, warming temperatures from climate change could have influenced that. But this El Nino is still developing, so we haven't really seen the major effects of it yet.
RASCOE: Knowing the risks that the U.S. will face this winter, is there anything that communities should be doing to prepare?
SOMMER: Yeah. There are already communities that are starting to think about this - emergency planning, evacuations. That'll be important. And emergency managers say this developing El Nino should be a huge warning sign to get ready before this winter hits.
RASCOE: That's NPR's Lauren Sommer. Thank you so much.
SOMMER: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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