SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Markets ended the week with a rally on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and optimism about ceasefires in the Middle East. But overnight, Iran says it's clamping down again on the strait. That puts the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran on the same fragile ground as that other ceasefire in Lebanon. NPR's Quil Lawrence joins us. Quil, thanks so much for being with us.
QUIL LAWRENCE, BYLINE: Good morning, Scott.
SIMON: Let's begin with the strait.
LAWRENCE: Yeah. It's been real whiplash. Yesterday, with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Iran then announced it would open the strait to commercial traffic for the duration of that ceasefire but only along this prescribed route close to the Iranian coast. But then the U.S. said it would still maintain its blockade of Iranian ports while these peace talks continue. So perhaps in response, today, Iran's military said, no, the strait remains closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade Iran. So it's been a confusing - what? - 24 hours with a lot of questions left about is the strait apparently reclosed or never opened to shipping?
SIMON: As you say, Pakistan's mediating the talks. Vice President Vance was in Islamabad last weekend but did not seemingly make much progress. So what's the next step?
LAWRENCE: The next step could be direct talks between the U.S. and Iran, most likely there in Pakistan. And President Trump told reporters that if there's a deal, he might even go there and show up in person. But, of course, that was before the news that Iran has closed the strait. At this point, the deal seems probably to hinge on a pause in Iran's nuclear enrichment program. The administration wants a 20-year pause, while Iran is talking about a 5-year pause. So there'll be some haggling over that timeline. We spoke to one analyst who said, yes, of course a deal is better than war, but without any details it's hard to say. For example, will there be international inspectors who will go in to see if Iran is just maintaining a peaceful nuclear infrastructure, not a weapons program. Will the U.S. unfreeze billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets? Those were all factors in a deal forged during the Obama administration that President Trump scrapped in his first term. He called it a bad deal. The unfreezing of these assets is something the Iranians apparently are insisting on this time, but we don't know to what extent President Trump will essentially rebuild the JCPOA. That was the deal that was hammered out under the Obama administration.
SIMON: And give us more details, please, on the deal in Lebanon.
LAWRENCE: Yes. It's also a 10-day ceasefire, but the most important distinction is that Israel may have made a peace deal with the Lebanese government. It's not clear they've made a peace deal with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militia army that operates in southern Lebanon, and it was essentially the entity that was at war with Israel. So that militant group has said it won't accept any deal. President Trump has urged them to, quote, "act nicely." Hezbollah says Israel can't have any freedom of movement in Lebanon, but Israeli forces are in southern Lebanon right now. They say they're there to prevent Hezbollah from firing rockets and missiles into Israel. And meanwhile, there's a huge buildup of U.S. forces in the region. One U.S. carrier group actually took the ancient route around the length of Africa instead of going through the Suez Canal to get there, which I think tells you a lot about the current state of safety of navigation in the region.
SIMON: NPR's Quil Lawrence. Thanks so much.
LAWRENCE: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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