SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Myanmar is holding its first election since the military seized power there nearly five years ago. The military claims the election will be, quote, "free and fair" and will restore democratic rule. Few believe that to be true. The country's been in a brutal civil war since the military toppled the government led by Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi. She's been under house arrest or in prison ever since. Reporter Michael Sullivan joins us now from neighboring Thailand. Michael, thanks for being with us.
MICHAEL SULLIVAN, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.
SIMON: Restoring democratic rule sounds difficult given the country's recent history. Is it?
SULLIVAN: Yeah, especially when even the military's leader admits the election can't even be held in many contested or rebel-held areas. And by some estimates, that's about half the country. And then there's the junta's heavy-handed tactics to make sure their proxy party comes out on top. It's banned Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy from taking part. The NLD crushed the military-backed party in the last election in 2020. And by holding the election only in areas it controls, it can better control the outcome, yeah? And there's also this new law enacted by the military that bans any criticism of the poll. And some 200 people have been detained, some threatened with years in prison, many for simply voicing their opposition on social media. So intimidation and coercion have been the norm in the run-up to this election.
SIMON: And what about international reaction?
SULLIVAN: Well, most Western governments, the U.N. and human rights groups are calling it a sham. But the military's main suppliers, Russia and China, have endorsed it, in neighboring China's case because it has extensive infrastructure projects in Myanmar - oil and gas pipelines, a so-called economic corridor to the Indian Ocean it wants to keep. And China wants stability, and despite the civil war, it still sees the military and its election as the least bad way to achieve that. Yun Sun directs the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.
YUN SUN: We could call them an ulcer or a tumor in the country's domestic politics, and it's not going anywhere. Five years of civil war did not kick them out, and the Chinese will not tilt the balance of power in a way that the military will be forced out.
SULLIVAN: In fact, it's just done the opposite, Scott. I mean, it's reined in these rebel groups it exerts influence over in the north of the country, and it's told the largest of those groups to stop arming others. And it's worked. After a disastrous couple of years for the Myanmar military on the battlefield, it's turning things around with this help from China, with better weapons and just better tactics overall.
SIMON: And, Michael, does the election have a chance of ending the civil war?
SULLIVAN: No. The war will continue. The opposition won't stop, though it might get even more fragmented and disorganized. And the military will continue its brutal tactics, including bombing hospitals and other civilian targets to intimidate the population. But there have been thousands of civilians killed so far, Scott. And more than 3 million people have been displaced, and even more are facing acute food insecurity. And they're just exhausted. And in that context, the election could be tempting for some, says longtime Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.
DAVID MATHIESON: For a lot of people, the sentiment is, we hate the regime, but at least they've got a plan. They've got a way to kind of get us out of this and stabilize. And we don't see that there'll be a bright democratic future, but it could be something.
SULLIVAN: Now, that's a pretty low bar, way too low for those who vowed to continue the fight. Like doctor-turned-rebel-commander Ko Ta Mar, who told NPR he sees this war as an existential moment in the history of his country - a chance to get the military out of politics for good.
KO TA MAR: (Speaking Burmese).
SULLIVAN: "If you see the crisis in the country as a disease," he says, "this election is like injecting steroids into a patient. The pain can be eased temporarily, but it's going to be worse in the long term," he says. "That's why we reject the elections."
But the military, Scott, will make sure its proxy party wins anyway and restores some stability and maybe some of its legitimacy abroad. But the war - it won't end.
SIMON: Reporter Michael Sullivan in Thailand. Thanks so much.
SULLIVAN: You're welcome, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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