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Canadian wildfire smoke that blew into the Great Lakes region is expected to clear from northern Michigan this weekend — at least for now.
The Michigan Air Quality Division said Thursday morning that the heavy smoke across the Upper Peninsula was already clearing out. Earlier in the week, there were unhealthy levels of fine particulate matter in the air across parts of the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan, with smoke settling here for days before moving further south.
While division forecasters expect Friday to be the last day for advisories from this round of smoke, they said it was too early to put out a firm forecast much beyond that: "There is still a considerable amount of smoke in Canada and the models are indicating a late weekend frontal system could draw down more smoke, next week."
The state has been issuing air quality alerts for much of the region. As of Thursday, there were still advisories across the Lower Peninsula for sensitive groups, including people with health issues like asthma.
People can take measures to protect their health, such as limiting outdoor activities, closing windows, and running air conditioners with high-quality filters.
This is the latest in a series of intense wildfire seasons fueled by dry conditions in Canada, resulting in smoky springs and summers in the Midwest.
“For the last few years, you've combined what has been somewhat persistent wildfire problems in Canada with an air flow that is moving some of that air from Canada down into the United States,” said Jim Keysor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gaylord.
It can be difficult to predict how far-away wildfires will affect air quality in different regions, since smoke is influenced by factors like wind, pressure systems, weather fronts and geography.
“Wherever the wind blows, the smoke is going to go,” said Alec Kownacki, a meteorologist with Michigan’s Air Quality Division. “And at different levels of the atmosphere you can have differing wind directions.”
Over the past week, low pressure systems funneled smoke from fires in the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba toward the upper Midwest.
“Along with that wind shift, a cold front came through. And what happens on the back end of a cold front — you have a lot of air sinking,” Kownacki said.
Local weather patterns also have an influence. While rain can help improve air quality, the rain that swept across parts of the region earlier this week actually pushed smoke down toward the earth, Keysor said, making exposure more likely.
“It's actually helping to bring down some of that smoke that's higher up into the atmosphere, which normally would have been way up there," he said. "That wouldn't have bothered us a whole lot."
One positive, Keysor added, was that modeling for smoke forecasts has become more accessible in the National Weather Service offices in recent years. Their smoke forecasts are informed by state data.
“The programmers that were putting some of those models together began to look at that [smoke] parameter a little bit more and to make it a product that we could view more readily,” he said. The weather models they use are improving. “We're able to see more of it than we used to.”
The heavy smoke that was hanging across the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan has now moved further south, including around Lansing.
“It’s wreaking havoc for us down here right now,” said Kownacki, who is based there.
Conditions are expected to improve across much of the state over the next few days, but there may be more smoke from the fires in the near future.
The state Air Quality Division will update its forecast on Friday morning.
